Sunday, October 16, 2011

On predicting the end of the world


OK, so who do we know who has predicted the end of the world? Here's some notable names (in my opinion), and the dates they predicted. All information sourced from Wikipedia.

+Pope Sylvester II:  1000 AD, Jan 1. Convenient disproof of papal infallibility. Similarly Pope Innocent III (1284 AD),
+Sandro Botticelli: 1504 AD. Superb painter.
+Martin Luther: 1600 AD. Single most important figure in the Reformation.
+Christopher Columbus: 1658.
+Charles Wesley: 1794. Wrote many well-known hymns.
+John Wesley: 1836. Founder of the Methodist church, along with his brother Charles (see above).
+Joseph Smith: 1890 or 1891. Founder of the Church of Jesus Christ of the Latter Day Saints (commonly known as the Mormon Church).
+Pat Robertson:
----1982: October, November.
----2007: April 29
+Louis Farrakhan: 1991. Leader of the Nation of Islam.
+Harold Camping:
----1994: September 6, September 29, October 2
----1995: March 31
----2011: May 21, October 21
+Nostradamus: 1999, July
+Isaac Newton: 2000. Sir Isaac got rather strange later in life, and wrote a lot of really weird stuff about mysticism and the like.
+Jerry Falwell: 2000, Jan 1.
--

These men were not necessarily stupid, or evil, or anything else I might want to call them. They were, however, wrong.

This doesn't necessarily mean they were wrong about anything else in particular that they said - Newton did get the laws of motion approximately correct, for instance, and Martin Luther had some rather worthwhile theological ideas (despite his virulent anti-Semitism). However, I contend that the above predictions rob these men of any claim to authority - I accept on other grounds that Newton's laws of motion are approximately correct, for instance, but I would not accept anything as true merely because it was said by Newton. Precisely the same applies to every other person on the list, which incidentally casts further doubt on quite a number of religions.

The Wikipedia article also lists predictions made by groups of people. I ignored most, but there are two that I would like to talk about - the two which, in my opinion, actually make sense.

The first prediction was made by the Apostles and the early Christians, who believed that Jesus would return in their lifetimes. They believed this because Jesus himself said so, clearly and repeatedly:
"I tell you the truth, some who are standing here will not taste death before they see the Son of Man coming in his kingdom." - Jesus, quoted in Matthew 16:28 and Mark 9:1

"I tell you the truth, this generation will certainly not pass away until all these things have happened." - Jesus, quoted in Matthew 24:34, Mark 13:30 and Luke 21:32
(translations according to New International Version)

To me, this is about as clear as it gets - two direct statements from Jesus himself in plain language, each recorded in at least two different Gospels. If this is not reliable, nothing in the Bible is reliable. Given their trust in Jesus, this particular end-of-the-world prediction was perfectly straightforward and reasonable. It was also wrong, of course, which to me seems like rather an awkward plot hole in Christian theology. I don't recall being overly bothered by it myself during my time as a Christian, though, so I don't really expect this to change anyone's mind.

The other prediction I'd like to point out is the one attributed to "various scientists" and dated approximately 5 billion AD. I mention this because it's based on humanity's current best understanding of how the universe works, and is therefore fairly likely to be correct. Personally I think we'll either die out or spread out long before then, so it's a bit of an academic point.

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